By E. Lundsgaarde
Combining stories of demography, weather swap, know-how and innovation, political improvement, new actors in overseas improvement, and worldwide governance frameworks, this publication highlights the main underlying determinants of swap within the African context and key uncertainties in regards to the continent's destiny improvement clients.
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Additional resources for Africa Toward 2030: Challenges for Development Policy
Between 2000 and 2008, EU members of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) disbursed an average of 44 per cent of their development assistance contributions annually to African countries, while the share of European Community aid directed to the continent averaged 42 per cent in the same period (OECD 2010). The Africa focus of this volume is also justified due to the complex of development challenges currently facing Africa that distinguish the continent from other world regions. While the African continent contains a mixture of low and middle income countries, it possesses the world’s largest concentration of least developed countries and failed and fragile states.
The difficulty in giving a verdict on the usefulness of scenario analyses is undoubtedly related to the diversity of the goals of individual exercises, differing levels of analysis across scenario initiatives, and variations in the techniques that are used to create scenarios. As the shortcomings in scenario analyses identified by Greeuw et al. indicate, scenarios can be evaluated in terms of both how the process leading to their creation is organised and what the qualities of the end product are.
A widely referenced definition of scenarios as “hypothetical sequences of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and decision-points” also appears in the volume (6). Since then, scenarios have also been defined as “internally consistent view[s] of what the future might turn out to be” (Porter 1985: 446) or as “focused descriptions of fundamentally different futures presented in a script-like or narrative fashion” (Schoemaker 1993: 195). These definitions point to three key properties of scenarios.